Samsung's fire reignited and exacerbated price increases, and OEM Google's TPU dropped by 80%.
Recently, multiple developments have emerged in quick succession in the semiconductor industry. From Samsung's potential acquisition of Google's AI chip foundry orders, to Intel's stock price taking a hit due to partnership changes, and the US plan to impose additional tariffs on Chinese semiconductors, this series of events reflects that the industry is in a transformative period where technological routes, supply chains, and geopolitics intersect.
A fire broke out in a research and development building belonging to Samsung Electronics in Hwaseong, South Korea, on December 24. Although the fire was extinguished within 13 minutes with no casualties, and Samsung officials responded that the incident had not affected production and operations, the event occurred during a sensitive period when memory chip prices were already soaring. This has exacerbated market concerns about supply fluctuations and may further strengthen expectations of chip price increases. The current "chip price surge" is driven by multiple factors:
Prices already at a high level: Since September 2025, the spot prices of DRAM and NAND Flash have increased by over 300% cumulatively. Industry giants such as Samsung and SK Hynix have also raised the prices of next year's HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) by nearly 20%.
The fundamental reason lies in supply-demand imbalance:
- Demand side: The AI boom is the core driving force. To meet training needs, projects like OpenAI's "Stargate" have locked up a large amount of DRAM production capacity, resulting in approximately 66% of global DRAM capacity being occupied by AI servers.
- Supply side: In pursuit of higher profits, major suppliers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have shifted a significant portion of their production capacity to high-end products like HBM and DDR5 for AI applications, directly squeezing the supply of consumer-grade chips and creating a nearly 20% supply gap.
This impact is now transmitting to the consumer end. The industry generally predicts that the market prices of electronic products such as smartphones and laptops will rise significantly in 2026, with some categories potentially seeing increases of 5% to 20%.
1. Samsung's Counterattack in AI Chip Foundry: Potential Fierce Rival to TSMC
According to IT Home reports, Google executives recently visited Samsung's semiconductor factory in Taylor, Texas, USA, where the two sides conducted in-depth negotiations regarding the foundry of Google's AI chip, the TPU. If the cooperation is finalized, Samsung will provide mass production support for Google's TPU for the first time, marking a crucial step in its entry into the enterprise-level chip foundry sector.
As Google's self-developed AI chip, the TPU matches the performance of NVIDIA's H100 but reduces costs by 80%. If Samsung successfully secures the foundry contract, it will not only optimize its customer structure but also break TSMC's monopoly in AI chip foundry. Notably, Samsung has previously manufactured Google's Tensor G4 mobile chip and participated in the research and development of Waymo's autonomous driving chips, with its technological accumulation gradually maturing.
2. Behind the "Revival" of DDR4: Samsung Locks in AI Server Profits
In response to the explosive demand for AI servers, Samsung announced the postponement of its DDR4 production discontinuation plan and will sign "non-cancelable" long-term supply agreements with customers in the first quarter of 2026. Currently, the contract price of DDR4 has soared to $60 per 16Gb. By binding price clauses, Samsung is locking in high profits while shifting production capacity to high-end products such as HBM.
This strategy reflects the structural imbalance in the DRAM market: although demand for consumer-grade DDR4 is declining, general-purpose DDR4 remains in short supply in the AI server sector due to the occupation of production capacity by HBM. Industry forecasts suggest that the DDR4 shortage will persist until 2026, with prices potentially rising further.
3. NVIDIA Suspends Intel 18A Testing: Foundry Game Takes a New Twist
NVIDIA recently suspended testing of Intel's 18A process technology, causing Intel's stock price to drop by over 5% in a single day. The collapse of this cooperation exposed the technical risks of Intel's advanced processes and highlighted NVIDIA's emphasis on supply chain autonomy. Although the two parties previously announced joint development of AI chips, NVIDIA clearly stated that its $5 billion investment does not involve foundry cooperation.
While Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has secured US government support through policy lobbying, the company's manufacturing division still faces yield and production capacity bottlenecks. In contrast, TSMC continues to consolidate its dominant position in AI chip foundry with its leading advantages in 3nm/4nm processes and EUV technology.
4. Tariff Game and Industry Consolidation: Undercurrents in the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain
The US plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese semiconductors starting in 2027, a policy that China has firmly opposed as "harmful to both sides." The global semiconductor supply chain is undergoing dual tests of technological competition and geopolitical games, forcing enterprises to find a balance between innovation and compliance.
Meanwhile, multiple merger and acquisition termination cases have recently emerged in the semiconductor sector, including the collapsed merger between Hygon Information and Sugon, and VeriSilicon's termination of the acquisition of Corelatus. Market volatility, valuation divergences, and tightening regulations are the main reasons, but the long-term trend of industry consolidation remains unchanged.
5. Technological Breakthroughs and Market Strategies: Samsung's AI Chip Foundry Opportunities
Samsung's bid for Google's TPU order is not only a commercial game but also a validation of its technological strength. Its GAA (Gate-All-Around) architecture technology has been applied to the mass production of the second-generation 3nm chips, with plans to launch a backside power delivery-based 2nm process in 2027, further narrowing the technological gap with TSMC.
If Samsung successfully enters Google's supply chain, it will attract more enterprises to reduce their dependence on TSMC. Currently, TSMC holds 67.6% of the global foundry market share, while Samsung accounts for only 7.7%. However, its capacity expansion in HBM and DDR5 (such as the delayed completion of its Texas factory) is building momentum for its foundry business.
6. Changes in the DRAM Market: Shift from Consumer Electronics to AI Servers
Samsung's adjustment to its DDR4 strategy reveals profound transformations in the DRAM industry. Although consumer demand for DDR4 is declining, AI servers have been forced to extend the usage cycle of DDR4 due to insufficient HBM production capacity. Manufacturers such as Micron have partnered with Powerchip to expand production, but structural shortages will be difficult to alleviate in the short term.
Industry data shows that the global DRAM market size is expected to reach $700.9 billion in 2025, with AI-related demand accounting for over 40%. By locking in server customers through "non-cancelable" contracts, Samsung not only avoids price fluctuation risks but also gains a buffer period for the transition to DDR5.
Recently, the memory market has shown active performance. On December 25, the A-share Memory Index continued to rise by 2%, with individual stocks such as Foream and ShannonX leading the gains, and institutional funds inflowing over 1 billion yuan in a single day. Over the past week, the sector as a whole has moved upward, with Ingenic Semiconductor seeing an increase of over 13%. At the same time, SK Hynix, a leading industry player, issued a statement emphasizing that against the backdrop of intensifying artificial intelligence competition, the scale and methods of investment in the semiconductor industry have undergone fundamental changes, making increased investment imperative. The alignment between market enthusiasm and industrial strategic upgrading reflects that the memory industry is entering a new development cycle.
7. Intel's Dilemma and Transformation: From Foundry Cooperation to Technological Self-Salvation
NVIDIA's suspension of 18A testing has exposed the awkward situation of Intel's foundry business. Although its 14A process is highly anticipated, mass production will not be available until 2027, while TSMC's 2nm process has already entered the trial production stage. The layoffs and organizational streamlining promoted by Pat Gelsinger have boosted the stock price in the short term but cannot conceal the technological gap.
Notably, Intel's foundry agreements with customers such as Microsoft and Cisco are facing renegotiation pressures. If it fails to achieve mass production of 18A by 2026, its foundry business may completely withdraw from the high-end market, further weakening its competitiveness against TSMC.
8. The "New Three Kingdoms Game" in the Semiconductor Industry
From Samsung's breakthrough in AI foundry to the skyrocketing DDR4 prices, from changes in NVIDIA-Intel cooperation to tariff policy disturbances, the semiconductor industry is undergoing a new round of reshuffling. Technological autonomy, supply chain resilience, and policy games will become core variables in future competition.
Can Samsung achieve a counterattack in the foundry sector through the TPU order? Can Intel regain vitality through its 14A process? And how will China-US tariff games reshape the global supply chain? The answers to these questions may determine the landscape of the semiconductor industry for the next decade.
