NVIDIA is in a hurry to sell, China is not in a hurry to buy

In early December, domestic GPU companies Moore Threads and Muxi Semiconductor made their debuts in a cluster, while Biren Technology and Enflame Technology are also preparing for their IPOs. Among them, Moore Threads' stock price surged by over 700% in five trading days, directly entering the ranks of A-shares' third most expensive stocks, with its share price closely trailing Cambricon and Kweichow Moutai.

Just as China's "Four GPU Dragons" are thriving in the IPO market, NVIDIA, the world's highest-market-cap company, is making a comeback.

On December 9th, former U.S. President Donald Trump posted on the Truth Social platform stating that, on the premise of ensuring continued national security, NVIDIA will be allowed to export its H200 artificial intelligence chips to "approved customers" in China and other regions, with the condition that the U.S. government receives a 25% cut of the proceeds. Similar products from other companies such as AMD and Intel will also be lifted from the ban.

Times have changed.

The H20 chip was summoned for talks due to "backdoor" concerns and failed to "successfully" re-enter the Chinese market. Half a year later, will the H200, a more advanced model than the H20, repeat the H20's fate?

After circulating as rumors for a period of time, it has finally become "news": former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly announced that the U.S. government will allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China, retaining a 25% "cut" as a form of "benefit fee." AMD and Intel will receive the same treatment for their similar products.

For NVIDIA, this is like a long drought receiving timely rain.

Although its market value once soared to $5 trillion earlier this year, since the fourth quarter, due to a series of issues including supply chain financing challenges, the rise of ASICs, the loss of its entire Chinese market share, and controversies over the AI investment bubble, NVIDIA's market value has fallen back to around $4.5 trillion, making it urgently in need of the Chinese market to "recover blood."

Spreading NVIDIA's technology globally is also a key part of U.S. hegemonic strategy—the more users adopt it, the more consolidated its technological hegemony becomes. As early as May this year, Trump promoted chips from NVIDIA, AMD, and Qualcomm to three Middle Eastern countries, securing a $100 billion mega-order.